Thursday, October 11, 2012

Safe Haven Currency for Picks : AUD Moved Higher, GBP Lower Against USD

Here is some short analysis about our safe haven currency,

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar moved higher yesterday albeit within a restricted range. Moving to highs of 1.0262 against its US Counterpart a positive beige book reading stated the US economy expanded modestly last month despite continued weakness within the labour market. Whilst the Australian dollar appears to be in a holding pattern at the moment we have seen some nice bounces back above the 3-month lows of 1.0150 witnessed earlier in the week. In figures due to be released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics its expected Australia's unemployment will rise from 5.1 percent in August to 5.3 percent in September. Opening this morning around 30 basis points stronger at 1.0236 should the labour market read disappoint the critical 1.02 level is again likely to be tested.
 
New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar has done very little over of the course of the past 24 hours as investors appear unwilling to take the Kiwi back above the 82 US Cents level. Given very little new material was covered in Eurogroup meetings earlier in the week and given the ongoing concerns over the lack of growth globally, investors appetite towards risk has remained, at best neutral. With the New Zealand food price index for September also likely to have only a minimum influence on currency happenings, today is shaping up as a slow one.  Opening this morning at very similar levels to where we left it the New Zealand dollar currently buys 81.64 US Cents.
  
Great British Pound:

It has been a lacklustre 24 hour period for the Great British Pound which has generally struggled to maintain levels in excess of the 1.60 mark against its US Counterpart. Touching lows of 1.5975 we open this morning slightly higher at 1.6011. Following a flat start the main talking point overnight came after Alcoa Inc. the largest US aluminium producer cut its forecast for the global consumption of metal by 1 percentage adding to fears that China's growth is pointed lower. Whilst markets generally remain on edge in regards to global growth prospects the Sterling opens this morning noticeably lower against the Aussie (1.5637) whilst higher when compared to the Kiwi (1.9601)

Forex news from Majors currency : The Euro remains at suppressed levels this morning currently swapping hands at a rate of 1.2899 against its US Counterpart. Touching the lowest level seen since Oct 1st (1.2835), investors have generally shied away from taking on the Euro as the shared unit suffered after yet another disappointing Euro-group meeting on Monday failed to bring any fresh material to the table. Combine the rumours of a further rate cut from the ECB with the IMF's recent warnings of future capital flare-ups and its little surprise to see the shared unit somewhat weighed down. Meanwhile in the US overnight despite the Federal Reserve which stated the US economy had expanded modestly last month in its Biege Book Survey, stocks finished broadly lower after disappointing earnings from Alcoa Inc increased concerns over the US corporate earnings season as well as broader growth. On the outlook this evening Trade Balance figures along with Unemployment claims out of the world's largest economy are likely to be highlights.
 
Data releases 

AUD: MI Inflation expectations, Unemployment Rate m/m
NZD: Business NZ Manufacturing Index, FPI n/n  
JPY:  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Core Machinery Orders m/m
GBP: No Data Today
EUR: German Final CPI m/m, French CPI m/m
USD: Trade balance, Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m, Federal budget balance

Source: ozforex

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