Gold price is still going down, We may need to see more stresses to riskier asset markets. As we have previously seen, moves higher in Gold are accelerated by either:
• Global stresses - Europe and China come to mind as potential catalysts, with the possibility of another Euro crisis becoming more real as highlighted in Chart of the Week.
The potential for tapering by the Fed has shown just how sensitive asset markets are and how easily panic selling can take place.
• Increasing balance sheets of Central Banks / debt levels of governments - "taper talk" is still just talk and even when/should it begin, there is no plan to actually reduce the size of the Fed's balance sheet; meanwhile, other major Central Banks are still in the process of accommodating or increasing their balance sheets.
Meanwhile On the debt side, there is no indication that any major economy is actually reducing the size of outstanding debt any time soon. This might actually suggest that when Gold begins to rally again, the price change in other currencies may be greater than that in USD (a topic we will likely revisit in the future). These dynamics continue to suggest to us that the long term trend of higher Gold prices is very much intact
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