Tuesday, July 9, 2013

US Federal Reserve Will Start to Scale Back Stimulus Soon, Finally GBP Rising Against USD

Pound sterling is rising from close to a four-month low against its US Counterpart the Great British Pound has staged a minor comeback overnight buoyed by US dollar weakness as well as signs of renewed continuity throughout broader Europe.

Moving to a high of 1.4964 expectations have risen that figures scheduled for release this evening will show an expansion in industrial production for the month of May. Given the data heavy economic calender over the coming 24 hours investors are keen to see a story of economic resilience unfold with the UK economy still well and truly in the midst of weak growth environment. Whilst opening stronger against the Greenback at 1.4946 the Sterling is weaker against both the Aussie 1.6367 and Kiwi 1.9151.    

Majors currency fundamental analysis: Despite the fact the US dollar looks poised to resume longer-term gains on the expectation the US Federal Reserve will start to scale back stimulus soon, already the market's attention has turned to Wednesday release of minutes from the Fed's June Policy Meeting. With some traders hinting they feel the rise of the Greenback may have been too quick; the pullback overnight clearly demonstrates that regardless of the longer-term trend nothing ever moves in a straight line up or down.

Moving lower overnight the Dollar Index (which measures the value of the greenback versus a basket of six major currencies) slid 0.3 percent whilst the USD/JPY also opens notably lower at a rate of 100.916. 

Meanwhile across in Europe the European government has agreed to release 3 billion euro's worth of aid to Greece in an attempt to prevent another debt-crisis showdown.

This volatility also providing some much needed support Portugal's politicians have reached an agreement to hold their governing coalition together, a move welcomed by investors. Having tested lows close to 1.2800 the Euro is stronger against the USD this morning at 1.2866. 

Source: ozforex

Data releases 
AUD: NAB Business Confidence
NZD: NZIER Business Confidence
JPY:  Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
GBP: BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y, Manufacturing Production m/m, Trade Balance, Industrial Production
EUR: ECOFIN Meetings
USD: No data today

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