Monday, January 7, 2019

Safe haven currency US Dollar getting lower against major currencies

Safe haven currency US Dollar getting lower against major currencies
Safe haven currency US Dollar seems weaker today against all major currencies, The Fed Chair Powell struck a responsive chord for investors by indicating that officials can be patient and can respond to changing economic dynamics. Powell, who had been previously praised for his straight-talking manner, was able to ease angst among investors without negating the Fed's assessment that the economy is strong enough to allow the central bank to gradually hike rates and continue to reduce its balance sheet.
Investors may take a fully attention, The pessimism that had such a powerful grip that the investors had begun pricing in a cut in rates in H1 19. This was taken back before the weekend, and the implied yield of the June Fed funds futures contract settled at 2.40%, the same as the current average effective rate (which is also the rate that the Fed pays interest on reserves).
Safe haven currency US Dollar was mostly softer last week, falling against most of the major currencies, especially falling against the emerging markets currencies:
Meanwhile, from European, The economic and political news from Europe is not good. The economy is slowing, and price pressures are falling. The Yellow Vest demonstrations in France continue. France becomes a nightmare for tourism 
Another news, Spain's minority government is being handcuffed by parliament. The risks of an election are rising. Brexit uncertainties are as great as ever. The single currency itself remains in a $1.13-$1.15 trading range that has prevailed since late October, with a few false breaks to the downside. 
Both ends of the range were tested last week, and they held. The 100-day moving average is found just inside the upper end of the range (~$1.1480), and the euro has not closed above in more than three months. On balance, the technical indicators favor the upside. A move above $1.1500 would likely trigger stops, but above $1.1520, and could likely signal an advance that could carry it another cent. But as we knew it before, the chance of higher still strong 
From Japanese Yen session,  safe haven currency, The dollar appears to have rebounded quicker than other cases, but it still needs to resurface above JPY109 to confirm it. Even then, it would seem weak below JPY110, the old shelf. Less volatile equities and higher US yields may provide the fundamental impetus for a move the technical indicators suggest is likely. The lack of BOJ intervention may speak to both the acceptance of the new best practices of limited intervention and inability to react quickly enough

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